Friday, December 27, 2013

2013 Year in Review: Charlotte’s residential market recovers — finally - Charlotte Business Journal

2013 Year in Review: Charlotte’s residential market recovers — finally - Charlotte Business Journal


Managing Editor-Charlotte Business Journal
If 2008 was the year Charlotte’s real estate market came crashing down, 2013 was the year it surged as if the boom times of the 1990s had returned.
Granted, the local for-sale housing market had nowhere to go but up. The steady rise in home prices is nonetheless impressive.
Consider: Home prices in metro Charlotte posted year-over-year gains for the 24th month in a row in November, according to the Charlotte Regional Realtors Association. And Charlotte-area home closings were up 15.2 percent from the same time a year earlier.
The association says Realtors closed on 2,619 home sales in November in the 10-county area it tracks, up from 2,274 in November 2012.
The average home sales price in November was $223,725, up 9.2 percent from $204,820 a year earlier. The median sales price — considered a more accurate measurement — rose to $175,000, up 9.4 percent from $160,000 in November 2012.
Properties are remaining on the market an average of 136 days from listing to closing, a decline of 10 days from the November 2012 level.
There were other, anecdotal signs of recovery. For example, some local investors found success in flipping homes. And this month, Premier Sotheby’s International Realty opened an office in SouthPark — its first outside Florida. Observers view that as evidence that the luxury, second-home market is on the rise.
The key question for the new year: How long will such trends continue?
Below is a sampling of our coverage of the return of Charlotte’s residential real estate market during 2013:

Sunday, December 22, 2013

Friday, December 20, 2013

Calculated Risk: Comments on Existing Home Sales

Calculated Risk: Comments on Existing Home Sales

by Bill McBride on 12/19/2013 12:48:00 PM

As expected, existing home sales declined in November.  But lower existing home sales, and slower price appreciation, doesn't mean the housing recovery is over. What matters for jobs and the economy are new home sales, not existing home sales.  And I expect the housing recovery to continue.

A key story in the NAR release this morning was that inventory was up 5.0% year-over-year in November.    Inventory is still very low, but year-over-year inventory has now turned positive, and I expect inventory to continue to increase. With the low level of inventory, there is still upward pressure on prices - but as inventory starts to increase, buyer urgency will wane, and price increases will slow.

The NAR does not seasonally adjust inventory, even though there is a clear seasonal pattern. Trulia chief economist Jed Kolko sent me the seasonally adjusted inventory (see graph of NAR reported and seasonally adjusted).

This shows that inventory bottomed in January (on a seasonally adjusted basis), and is now up about 8.4% from the bottom. On a seasonally adjusted basis, inventory was up 1.7% in November, even though the NAR reported inventory declined NSA.

Important: The NAR reports active listings, and although there is some variability across the country in what is considered active, most "contingent short sales" are not included. "Contingent short sales" are strange listings since the listings were frequently NEVER on the market (they were listed as contingent), and they hang around for a long time - they are probably more closely related to shadow inventory than active inventory. However when we compare inventory to 2005, we need to remember there were no "short sale contingent" listings in 2005. In the areas I track, the number of "short sale contingent" listings is also down sharply year-over-year.

Another key point: The NAR reported total sales were down 1.2% from November 2012, but conventional sales were probably up from November 2012, and distressed sales down.  The NAR reported that 14% of sales were distressed in November (from a survey that isn't perfect):
Nine percent of November sales were foreclosures, and 5 percent were short sales.
Last year the NAR reported that 22% of sales were distressed sales.  So total sales were down slightly, distressed sales down sharply and conventional sales were up.  That is a positive sign. 

The following graph shows existing home sales Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA).

Existing Home Sales NSA

Sales NSA in November (red column) were above the sales for 2007, 2008 and 2010, 2011.  Sales were below 2012 (fewer distressed sales), and below 2009 (boosted by tax credit).

Overall this was a solid report


Existing Home Inventory Seasonally Adjusted

U.S. Home Values Seen Gaining Most Since ’05, Zillow Says - Bloomberg

U.S. Home Values Seen Gaining Most Since ’05, Zillow Says - Bloomberg


U.S. homes gained $1.9 trillion in total value this year, the biggest jump since 2005, as the real estate market rebounded from the recession,Zillow Inc. (Z) said.
At the end of 2013, the housing stock will be worth about $25.7 trillion, Zillow said today in a statement. U.S. homes as a whole lost $6.3 trillion in value from 2007 through 2011 and have recovered 44 percent of that, according to the Seattle-based property-data firm.
Home prices are rising across the U.S. as investors drain markets ofinventory and improving employment brings in more buyers. Almost 90 percent of the 485 metropolitan areas analyzed by Zillow had price gains this year. The total value of the nation’s housing stock jumped about 7.9 percent from 2012, the second straight annual increase, according to the report.
“The housing market continued to build on the positive momentum that began in 2012,” Stan Humphries, Zillow’s chief economist, said in the statement. “Low mortgage rates and an improving economy helped bring buyers into the market.”
Price increases will slow next year to a pace closer to the historic norm of 3 percent to 5 percent, according to Humphries.
The Federal Reserve yesterday said it will scale back asset purchases that have bolstered housing demand by keeping interest rates low. Improvements in the job market spurred the decision to cut spending on Treasuries and mortgage bonds to $75 billion from $85 billion starting in January, the Federal Open Market Committee said at the end of a two-day meeting in Washington.
Photographer: Andrew Harrer/Bloomberg
A contractor pulls a concrete form while working at a Donohoe Construction Co. retail... Read More
“The housing market is transitioning away from the robust bounce off the bottom we’ve been seeing, toward a more sustainable, healthier market,” Humphries said.

Thursday, December 19, 2013

Home construction on the rise in Charlotte

Home construction on the rise in Charlotte

By Jim Bradley:  
CHARLOTTE, N.C. — 
There is new evidence Wednesday night that the Charlotte economy is ending the year on a positive note.
Construction of new homes is up, and economists and homebuilders said next year could be even better.

It's still a week until Christmas but homebuilders said they've already gotten a big gift.

New numbers show construction of new homes is up nationally to the highest level since the recession started.

In Charlotte, the news is even better and experts said that could snowball into a big boost for the economy.

It's no longer unusual to see homes being built in Charlotte -- a market that dried up from lack of demand during the recession is now gaining momentum.

"Builders in all price points are doing well," said Bill Saint with Classica Homes. "The market's great. Interest rates are still low. Buyers are out there."

Saint said his business grew 30 percent this year and he expects to build 25 percent more houses in 2014.

This year, the number of homes being built in Charlotte has nearly doubled to almost 9,000.

The benefit of new homes is far-reaching, from fueling a demand for more furniture and appliances to creating more jobs.
"That is a very good sign in this marketplace," said Alan Banks with the Charlotte Home Builders Association. "Because every new home that's started creates three new jobs."

Charlotte has now gained 20,000 more jobs than it lost during the recession.

Economist John Connaughton said the economic impact from housing will continue to grow.

"When you talk about more jobs, that's going to lead to more houses and so I think Charlotte will perform much better than the state will, and the nation as well," Connaughton said.
At the height of the housing boom, Charlotte was building about 25,000 new homes a year.

Tuesday, December 17, 2013

Report: Charlotte continues to see declines in underwater homes | CharlotteObserver.com

Report: Charlotte continues to see declines in underwater homes | CharlotteObserver.com

The Charlotte area had fewer underwater homes in the third quarter compared with the second quarter thanks to ongoing gains in home prices, real estate data firm CoreLogic said Tuesday.
Across the metropolitan area, 8.4 percent of residential properties with a mortgage were underwater, which means the borrowers owed more on their mortgages than their homes were worth. That was down from 9.1 percent in the second quarter. The region had 39,229 underwater properties in the third quarter, compared with 42,013 properties in the second quarter.
Nationwide, roughly 6.4 million homes, or 13 percent, were underwater, down from 7.2 million homes, or 14.7 percent, in the second quarter,
CoreLogic said increases in U.S. home prices are resulting in fewer homes being underwater, also known as in negative equity, as their owners regain lost equity. The Irvine, Calif.-based company said appreciation has helped more than 3 million property owners regain equity since the first quarter of this year.
Last week, the Charlotte Regional Realtor Association reported that Charlotte-area home prices rose 9.2 percent on average in November from a year ago, an increase the group said was driven by low supplies of homes for sale. November inventory was at a five-month supply. A balanced housing market has an approximately six-month supply, according to a widely accepted definition.
The Charlotte region has continued to see declines in underwater homes. In June, CoreLogic reported that 13 percent of homeowners in the area were underwater in the first quarter, down from 17.6 percent in the fourth quarter of last year and 18.8 percent in the first quarter of 2012.
CoreLogic said Tuesday that 4.1 percent, or 18,958 residential properties, were in near negative equity in the third quarter in the Charlotte area, down from 4.6 percent, or 21,148, in the second quarter.
Nationwide, the number of underwater homes will keeping falling in coming quarters as the U.S. housing market continues to improve, CoreLogic said.

Read more here: http://www.charlotteobserver.com/2013/12/17/4551056/report-charlotte-continues-to.html#.UrDRw9JDvmc#storylink=cpy

Friday, December 13, 2013

55% of Buyers Prefer a New Home - Builder Magazine

55% of Buyers Prefer a New Home - Builder Magazine

55% of Buyers Prefer a New Home

Custom builders can hold their own in the new home market


According to the National Association of Home Builders' What Home Buyers Really Want report, more than half of new and potential home buyers prefer to purchase a new home.
Custom home builders and building companies have a nearly-equal shot at the market of buyers purchasing new homes; 27% preferred a custom build on a private lot, and 28% preferred a new home from a developer.

Screen Shot 2013-12-13 at 1.29.13 PM

SOURCE: National Association of Home Builders' What Home Buyers Really Want, May 2013

Thursday, December 12, 2013

Prices rising, lots shrinking | CharlotteObserver.com

Prices rising, lots shrinking | CharlotteObserver.com

By Allen Norwood
As Charlotte new-home construction rebounds from its prolonged slump, prices are up and builders are busier than they have been in five or six years. Lumber delivery trucks are rolling and the pop of nail guns signals the return of construction jobs. All good news.
It’s too soon to paint a clear picture of the rebound. There just aren’t enough numbers in, despite what you see and hear.
But insiders offer their best take on what’s happening – including their warning that the lack of new lots poses a huge speed bump down the road. That should give you pause if you’ll be shopping for a new home in the next few years. Or, rather, send you to tour models now.
Chuck Graham of Newton Graham Consultants, who tracks the local market for builders and other clients, says he hasn’t been surprised by anything he’s seen so far. “It’s too early ...” he said. “We’ve got a lot of mess to work through before any surprises show.”
Here’s what he means: At the peak in 2006, builders in the eight-county Charlotte market took out 27,000 single-family permits. At the bottom in 2010, they pulled just 6,400. Now – despite the buzz of activity – the number has rebounded only to 9,300.
The median closing price is at $226,500, almost back to its peak of $228,000, but not the numbers sold.
Overwhelmingly, say Graham and Alan Banks, president of the Home Builders Association of Charlotte, construction is on lots developed before the downturn, or on reconfigured parcels.
“We’re back to saying, ‘What can we do at higher density, especially closer in?’” Banks said.
He cites what he sees along Carmel Road, for instance. Before the downturn, many new homes along Carmel were priced at more than $1 million. Now, several of those 120-foot-wide lots have been converted to two 60-foot lots – with home prices cut to match.
The newest lots in The Palisades in southwest Mecklenburg are smaller than they would have been at the peak of the boom, he said. The same is true at Springfield in Fort Mill. “Builders who are able to do that are doing OK,” he said.
Banks and Graham agree: No new traditional subdivisions are being developed.
Builders are erecting houses on lots bought during the downturn, often at fire-sale prices. All the best lots have been snapped up, Graham said. When those are gone, buyers will face steep price hikes.
As builders run out of bargain existing lots, they’ll have no choice but to bid up the price of land for new lots, a problem all across the country. “All the new stuff coming on board will be substantially higher than existing lots,” Graham said.

Read more here: http://www.charlotteobserver.com/2013/10/31/4429756/prices-rising-lots-shrinking.html#.UqmW2dJDvmc#storylink=cpy

Charlotte home prices, sales rise in November | CharlotteObserver.com

Charlotte home prices, sales rise in November | CharlotteObserver.com

Home Prices
MARK HAMES - mhames@charlotteobserver.com
Home for sale in the Dilworth area of Charlotte earlier this month.
Charlotte-area home prices rose 9.2 percent on average in November from a year ago, as closings increased and the supply of homes for sale continued its downward streak, the Charlotte Regional Realtor Association said Monday.
Inventory fell to a five-month supply from a 5.3-month level the month before and a 6.5-month supply a year ago, according to the report that tracks only existing-home sales. A balanced housing market has an approximately six-month supply, according to a widely accepted definition.
Low supplies helped drive up prices in November, the association said. The average price rose to $223,725 from $204,820 a year ago. The average price is at its highest level since $237,635 in August.
Another factor in rising prices is fewer sales of distressed homes, which tend to sell for less than nondistressed properties. Foreclosures and short sales accounted for a smaller percentage of sales than a year ago, the association said.
Sales continued their trend of annual gains. November closings rose to 2,619, up 15.2 percent from a year ago. Closings in the region have logged annual gains every month since July 2011.
Compared with October, sales were down 7.5 percent. Real estate brokers say sales tend to slow toward the end of the year, typically a less active time for the housing market.
In Charlotte and elsewhere, brokers are keeping a close eye on persistently low supplies. Last month, the National Association of Realtors said constrained inventory is causing double-digit year-over-year gains in U.S. home prices. Across the 18-county Charlotte region, inventory is at its lowest level since May, when it was also at a five-month supply.
Eric Locher, president of the association, said that although inventories tend to be low this time of year, “it’s even low inventory for this time of year.”
Inventories are unusually low for this time of year because rising mortgage rates pushed many sellers to list their homes in the first half of the year before rates rose further, he said. The fear of rates going higher also encouraged many buyers to make a purchase in the first half of the year, he said.
Mortgage rates rose this year amid speculation that the Federal Reserve might scale back its stimulus efforts, an action the Fed decided in September to defer. According to mortgage giant Freddie Mac, the average rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was 4.26 percent last month, still near historic lows but up from 3.41 percent in January.
The Charlotte Realtors’ report showed distressed sales made up 8.8 percent of all closings in November, down from 13.3 percent a year ago. That decline comes as foreclosure inventories have fallen nationwide. Real estate data firm CoreLogic said Monday that approximately 879,000 U.S. homes were in some stage of foreclosure in October, down from 1.3 million a year ago.
Short sales and foreclosures are down as lenders have become more open to working with borrowers as their financial situations improve, Locher said, pointing to declines in unemployment rates.
Homes sold faster than they did a year ago. In November, it took 136 days on average from the time a home was listed until it closed, 10 days shorter than a year ago.
Sellers received more of their original listing price than they did a year ago. That amount rose to 93.8 percent from 92.2 percent in November 2012.
Monday’s report follows a report released last week by CoreLogic that showed Charlotte-area home prices rose 7.4 percent in October from a year ago, marking the region’s 22nd consecutive month of annual price gains.

Read more here: http://www.charlotteobserver.com/2013/12/09/4532879/charlotte-home-prices-sales-rise.html#.UqmV1tJDvmc#storylink=cpy

Wednesday, November 27, 2013

New Home Sales Up 20% - Builder Magazine

New Home Sales Up 20% - Builder Magazine

New Home Sales Up 20%

But leading housing data company says total new home starts will be slightly lower than predicted.

 
The recovering U.S. housing market took a bit of a breather in recent months, according to Metrostudy, the research arm of BUILDER. Year-to-date figures from the Commerce Department for residential permits, housing starts, and new home sales through August all show gains of 20% or more over 2012, but recent months have been weaker than the first half of the year.
Metrostudy projects total new home sales as 437,000, only slightly lower than the 440,000 the firm anticipated last quarter, and representing an increase of 19% over the 2012 total.
Third-quarter figures indicate move-ins increased year-over-year at about the same rate as in the first half 2013, while the rate of increase in new housing starts slowed moderately.
Median closing price figures from Metrostudy’s nationwide deed transaction database indicate the appreciation rate peaked in the June/July time frame, and has since stepped back slightly. In light of the most recent trends, the data firm adjusted its Housing Starts Forecast for annual 2013 downward to 938,000 from 949,000 last quarter.
The pace of new construction over the last year has been influenced by a substantial amount of investor activity in the resale market, which Metrostudy says has pushed prices upward and driven out-bid consumers toward the new home market. But the investor cycle looks to have peaked early this year, as cash purchase and absentee owner trends have ebbed moderately.
Why is the New Home Market Taking a Pause?Several factors are likely to be playing a role in the relative “pause” in torrid market action, Metrostudy officials say. The pace of price increases in some markets has simply been unsustainable, and in that sense a chance to consolidate and reassess the substantial gains in housing is a healthy opportunity. The frenzied pace of activity in many housing markets earlier this year also may have served to pull forward some demand, leaving a slightly less aggressive consumer mindset.
The U.S. home buyer suddenly had a number of factors to inspire some caution as summer came to a close, Metrostudy says. They included a mild re-assertion of seasonal factors after nearly a half decade of uncharacteristic seasonal trends, and a momentary interest rate spike stemming from rumors that the Federal Reserve’s bond purchasing would taper off.
While autumn has seen a slightly less enthusiastic attitude toward housing, Metrostudy still projects healthy growth in new home sales volume this year. Inventory remains very low in many markets, and sufficient supply is as much of a concern as sufficient demand.

Tuesday, November 26, 2013

Charlotte home prices up 7.8% in September over last year | CharlotteObserver.com

Charlotte-area home prices rose 7.8 percent in September from a year ago, according to the Standard & Poor’s Case-Shiller index report released Tuesday.
Compared with August, prices fell 0.2 percent in the area, according to the closely watched survey that reports on single-family home sales. Charlotte was the only city among 20 tracked by the report to log a decline from August.
Nationwide, home prices rose 13.3 percent on an annual basis in a composite index of 20 cities, for the highest annualized gain since February 2006. Prices were up 0.7 percent from August.
“Housing continues to emerge from the financial crisis: The proportion of homes in foreclosure is declining and consumers’ balance sheets are strengthening,” David Blitzer, chairman of the Index Committee for S&P Dow Jones Indices, said in a statement.
“The longer run question is whether household formation continues to recover and if homeownership will return to the peak levels seen in 2004.”

Read more here: http://www.charlotteobserver.com/2013/11/26/4498638/charlotte-home-prices-up-78-in.html#.UpUxjdKX98E#storylink=cpy

Wednesday, November 20, 2013

92 Percent of Homebuyers Conduct their Searches Online | Lasso CRM Blog

92 Percent of Homebuyers Conduct their Searches Online | Lasso CRM Blog

A survey released last week by the National Association of REALTORS® reveals that more home shoppers than ever are using the Internet during their home searches.  According to the2013 NAR Profile of Buyers and Sellers, 92 percent of prospective homebuyers shopped online for a home, a 2 percent increase from 2012.
As more people turn to the Internet to research homes, many builders and developers are implementing robust online marketing campaigns that include listing directories, banner ads and social media strategy. In many cases, more marketing dollars are earmarked for online initiatives than for traditional advertising like print and direct mail. However, online efforts cannot stop at merely attracting home shoppers. In order to see the highest return on this investment, online leads have to be captured, immediately responded to, and nurtured throughout the buying cycle.
The majority of online shoppers are serious, qualified and ready to engage. A single email or phone call just won’t do. Studies have shown it takes between 5-12 points of contact before a sales lead will respond.  A CRM system designed exclusively for new home sales is the most effective and efficient way to capture and segment online leads, build trust through follow-up activities, establish relationships, and convert more leads to appointments and sales.
Automated sales processes eliminate forgotten to-dos, and built-in email marketing campaigns ensure you reach every prospect with relevant, timely information.
If you’d like to learn more about how CRM can help you leverage this increase in online home shoppers, contact a Lasso team member today.

Tuesday, November 19, 2013

NAHB's Housing Market Index flat, but remains positive despite political uncertainty, construction costs - The Business Journals

NAHB's Housing Market Index flat, but remains positive despite political uncertainty, construction costs - The Business Journals


Washington Bureau Chief
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Home builders remain kind of confident in the market for new single-family homes, despite policy uncertainties in Washington, D.C., and rising construction costs.
The Housing Market Index compiled by the National Association of Home Builders remained at 54 in November. This marked the sixth consecutive month that more home builders viewed market conditions as good rather than poor.
That's "an encouraging sign, considering the unresolved debt and federal budget issues cause builders and consumers to remain on the sideline," said NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe.
The survey asked builders to rate current sales, sales expectations, and traffic of prospective buyers.
Current sales conditions stayed at 58, while expectations for future sales fell one point to 60. Buyer traffic was the index's worst-performing component, dropping one point to 42.
"Given the current interest rate and pricing environment, consumers continue to show interest in purchasing new homes, but are holding back because Congress keeps pushing critical decisions on budget, tax and government spending issues down the road," said NAHB Chairman Rick Judson, owner of Evergreen Development Group in Charlotte, N.C. "Meanwhile, builders continue to face challenges related to rising construction costs and low appraisals."

Friday, November 8, 2013

Carolina Realtors: October home sales up 10% year-over-year - Charlotte Business Journal

Carolina Realtors: October home sales up 10% year-over-year - Charlotte Business Journal



Staff Writer-Charlotte Business Journal
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Closings for Charlotte-area homes increased by 10 percent in October compared to the same time in 2012, according to the Charlotte Regional Realtors Association’s monthly market activity report released today.
Realtors closed on 2,831 homes sales last month in the 10-county Charlotte region tracked by the association, up from 2,574 in October 2012, the report states.
Closings have slowed in recent months, as is typical for later in the year. Charlotte-area closings were 3,392 in August and3,527 in July. But October’s figures were slightly better than September’s, which recorded 2,825 closings.
“The pace of sales seems to be slowing, which is typical for this time of year,” saysEric Locher, CRRA president. “Our local housing recovery continues, though given the challenges of persistently low inventory, tight credit, rising interest rates and uncertainty on the federal level, future sales could be impacted.”
Sale prices also increased for the 23rd month in a row in October.
The average home sales price in October was $210,278, up 2.9 percent from $204,284 during October 2012. The median sales price — considered a more accurate measurement — rose 8.2 percent during the year to $169,900, up from $157,000.
Average list prices jumped 9.2 percent to $252,415 from $231,150 during the same time last year. The number of pending sales hiked 22 percent to 2,989 last month, up from 2,449 a year earlier.
New residential listings also grew, by 17 percent to 4,160 year-over-year.
The Charlotte region, as tracked by CarolinaMLS, now has a 5.3-month supply of homes for sale. Properties are remaining on the market an average of 96 days from listing to closing, a decline of 12 days compared to October 2012.
Foreclosures and short sales represented 8.1 percent of the market’s new listings and 8.8 percent of all closed sales in October, according to the report.
The CRRA, a trade association with more than 6,000 Realtor members, uses a vendor that compiles its monthly market report based on data from its Carolina Multiple Listing Services Inc.

Charlotte home sales rise 10% in October | CharlotteObserver.com

Charlotte home sales rise 10% in October | CharlotteObserver.com

Charlotte-area home sales rose 10 percent in October from a year ago as fewer properties were put up for sale, the Charlotte Regional Realtor Association reported Friday.
The average sales price was also up, rising 3 percent to $210,278, the report on existing-home sales showed. Compared with September, prices fell 5 percent.
In October, 2,831 homes sold, up less than 1 percent from September.
Inventory, which is being widely watched in Charlotte and elsewhere, dropped to a 5.3-month supply from 6.9 months’ worth a year ago. The tight supplies are credited with helping drive appreciation, as potential buyers try to outbid one another for some properties. In October, 15,366 homes were listed for sale in the Charlotte region, down 8 percent from a year ago and 1 percent from September.
It’s unclear how much of a drag rising mortgage rates and low supplies will be on the housing market, which traditionally slows down in the second half of the year. Eric Locher, president of the association, said in a statement that Charlotte’s housing market continues to recover. But, he said, “given the challenges of persistently low inventory, tight credit, rising interest rates and uncertainty on the federal level, future sales could be impacted.”
The association’s report comes after real estate data company CoreLogic said Tuesday that Charlotte-area home prices rose 7.1 percent in September from a year ago, for the 19th month in a row of year-over-year gains.

Read more here: http://www.charlotteobserver.com/2013/11/08/4449157/charlotte-home-sales-rise-10-in.html#.Un0kH3CX98E#storylink=cpy

Tuesday, November 5, 2013

Charlotte home prices rise 7.1% in September | CharlotteObserver.com

Charlotte home prices rise 7.1% in September | CharlotteObserver.com

Charlotte-area home prices rose 7.1 percent in September from a year ago, for the 19th month in a row of year-over-year gains, real estate data company CoreLogic said Tuesday.
Prices rose 12 percent across the U.S, which also has seen consecutive months of annual gains since March 2012.
But home prices in the Charlotte region fell 0.1 percent in from August, while they increased 0.2 percent nationwide.




Read more here: http://www.charlotteobserver.com/2013/11/05/4441322/charlotte-home-prices-rise-71.html#.UnksmnCX98E#storylink=cpy

Friday, November 1, 2013

U.S. Mortgage Rates at 4-Month Low Fall for Second Week - Bloomberg

U.S. Mortgage Rates at 4-Month Low Fall for Second Week - Bloomberg

U.S. mortgage rates dropped for a second week, keeping borrowing costs at a four-month low as the Federal Reserve signaled that it would press on with its stimulus plan aimed at holding rates down.
The average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage fell to 4.1 percent the week ended today from 4.13 percent, Freddie Mac said in a statement. The average 15-year rate declined to 3.2 percent from 3.24 percent.
Mortgage rates have fallen from two-year high in August as weaker-than-expected economic data drives investors to the safety of government bonds that guide consumer debt. The Fed said yesterday it will continue with $85 billion in monthly bond purchases, saying it needs to see more evidence that the economy will continue to improve. Confidence among U.S. consumers declined in October by the most since August 2011 as the budget impasse and debt-ceiling negotiations in Washington took a toll on outlooks.
“For the next several months, we’re likely to see housing markets, at best, flat and maybe down a little bit while we are awaiting a pickup in the economy,” David Berson, chief economist for Nationwide Insurance in Columbus, Ohio, said in a telephone interview yesterday.
Contracts (USPHTMOM) to buy previously owned homes declined 5.6 percent in September, the most in more than three years, according to the National Association of Realtors.
Buyer competition for a limited supply of homes has been fueling price gains. The S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city index showed prices increased 12.8 percent in August from a year earlier.
A monthly measure of prices by the Federal Housing Finance Agency increased 0.3 percent increase in August from July, the smallest gain in 11 months, as more homeowners listed their properties for sale.

Sept. Case-Shiller Expected to Continue Showing Eye-Popping Annual Appreciation | Zillow Real Estate Research

Sept. Case-Shiller Expected to Continue Showing Eye-Popping Annual Appreciation | Zillow Real Estate Research

The Case-Shiller data for August came out this morning, and based on this information and the September 2013 Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI, released Oct. 17), we predict that next month’s Case-Shiller data (September 2013) will show that both the non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) 20-City Composite Home Price Index and the NSA 10-City Composite Home Price Index increased 13.2 percent on a year-over-year basis. The seasonally adjusted (SA) month-over-month change from August to September will be 0.8 percent for both the 20-City Composite and the 10-City Composite Home Price Indices (SA). All forecasts are shown in the table below. Officially, the Case-Shiller Composite Home Price Indices for September will not be released until Tuesday, Nov. 26.
table
The Zillow Home Value index showed the first signs of moderation in home value appreciation, with several of the largest metros showing month-over-month declines in September. Case-Shiller indices have also shown slowdowns in monthly appreciation but have not yet recorded monthly declines. Even when the Case-Shiller indices do show monthly depreciation in some areas, they will continue to show an inflated picture of home prices, especially when considering year-over-year growth. The Case-Shiller indices are biased toward the large, coastal metros currently seeing enormous home value gains, and they include foreclosure resales. The inclusion of foreclosure resales disproportionately boosts the index when these properties sell again for much higher prices — not just because of market improvements, but also because the sales are no longer distressed.
In contrast, the ZHVI does not include foreclosure resales and shows home values for September 2013 up 6.4 percent from year-ago levels. More on the differences between a repeat sales index, including the Case-Shiller indices, and an imputed hedonic index like the ZHVI can be found here. We expect home value appreciation to continue to moderate through the end of 2013 and into 2014, rising 3.8 percent between September 2013 and September 2014 — a rate much more in line with historic appreciation rates. The main drivers of this moderation include rising mortgage rates, less investor participation – leading to decreased demand – and increasing for-sale inventory supply. Further details on our forecast of home values can be found here, and more on Zillow’s full September 2013 report can be found here.
chartTo get some sense of where the Case-Shiller Composite-20 Index will go over the coming years, this chart combines: 1) the historical trajectory of the index; 2) next month’s forecast given above based on current Zillow data; and 3) Zillow’s forecast for real estate appreciation over the next five years, based on the Zillow Home Price Expectations Survey, which includes input from more than 100 economists. These panelists actually predict the five-year path of the ZHVI, not the Case-Shiller index, but the future expectations are interesting nonetheless when applied to the current Case-Shiller index levels. The latest Zillow Home Price Expectations Survey (2013 Q3) came out in early August, and the next one will be released in November.
To forecast the Case-Shiller indices, we use the August Case-Shiller index level, as well as the September Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), which is available more than a month in advance of the Case-Shiller index, paired with September foreclosure resale numbers, which Zillow also publishes more than a month prior to the release of the Case-Shiller index. Together, these data points enable us to reliably forecast the Case-Shiller 10-City and 20-City Composite indices.

Fed's caution on housing may be overblown - The Term Sheet: Fortune's deals blogTerm Sheet

Fed's caution on housing may be overblown - The Term Sheet: Fortune's deals blogTerm Sheet

FORTUNE -- The Federal Reserve on Wednesday pressed ahead with its stimulus program of asset purchases and low interest rates. Yup, as widely expected (and reported), the end of its two-day meeting was pretty much a snoozer: For the most part, the central bank made few changes to its description of the state of the economy, saying that it has "continued to expand at a moderate pace" and job markets "have shown further improvement."
What's interesting, however, is that policymakers slightly changed their views of the housing industry, acknowledging that the recovery has "slowed somewhat in recent months." It was only at its last meeting in September when the central bank said the housing industry was "strengthening."
Whatever the Fed's take, it would be short-sighted to read too much into it. After all, what the central bank chooses to say and not say is puzzling. Even though the government shutdown cost the U.S. economy billions of dollars, it made no direct mention that Uncle Sam was partially out of business for more than two weeks.
And yet, the Fed chose to bring up the state of the housing market. True it has modestly slowed down, but that's inconsequential because the recovery is nowhere near reversing. Home prices are rising more slowly now than in the spring, but they're still climbing fast, writes Jed Kolko, chief economist at real-estate website Trulia.
One main reason: Nationally, and in all of the 100 largest metro areas, it's still significantly cheaper to buy than rent, Kolko says. Mortgage rates have made buying more expensive; the 30-year fixed rate is now 4.8% compared with 3.75% a year ago. And as a result, the cost gap between buying vs. renting has narrowed. A year ago, it was 45% cheaper to buy than rent in the U.S. That has fallen to 35% today, but the cost incentive to buy is still substantial.
There are caveats, of course, where it's harder to justify the costs of buying over renting. Across several parts of California such as San Francisco, San Diego, and Los Angeles, buying isn't that much cheaper than renting, according to Trulia. However, buying is a bargain in places like West Palm Beach, Fla., as well as parts of Ohio and Michigan.
Meanwhile, U.S. home prices have continued to recover, which gives those on the fence about selling a reason to put their home on the market and help stabilize prices. In August, prices rose at their fastest annual pace since February 2006 -- the height of the housing bubble, according to the latest reading from the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Prices Indices. On average, prices are back to their mid-2004 levels, but still roughly 20% below their summer 2006 peak.
Both home prices and mortgage rates are rising from record lows. So whatever worries the Fed has about the economy, it likely has less to do with housing than uncertainty surrounding Washington.